New US parcel surcharges may hasten predicted end of free shipping

Not for the first time the parcel market appears like a battleground to expand or shrink margins, and predictions of an end to free delivery may get a boost from a new round of surcharges by FedEx and UPS in their home market.

This month they are introducing delivery surcharges in 82 postal codes, although they already apply to many zipcodes in the US – for the most part areas with lower population density, which affect yields for the parcel carriers.

Now the integrators are extending the surcharges to more densely populated regions, with many of the zipcodes affected in major urban population centres, including New York, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Depending on mode (air or ground), and residential vs commercial delivery, the surcharges range from $3.95 to $5.85, but can be higher in areas categorised as ‘extended’ or ‘remote’.

UPS implemented its surcharge on Monday, and FedEx is set to follow suit a week later.

According to one report, the integrators have now extended the delivery surcharge to cover more than half of all zipcodes in the US.

With the additional surcharge on sectors where they see higher yields owing to better traffic density, FedEx and UPS stand to enjoy a nice boost to their bottom lines. While they are engaged in huge cost reduction efforts, the pair are increasingly using accessorial charges to raise yields.

As the latest TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index (published yesterday) points out, they have raised fuel surcharges more than once and boosted demand surcharges since the announcement of their general rate increase for 2024. Historically, updates of accessorial charges were communicated with annual price changes, but now shippers are faced with price fluctuations at other times in the year.

Given the higher density and volume of shipments to the new areas where delivery surcharges apply, shippers are bound to see a significantly stronger increase in costs than those with lower population density. They may be able to mitigate this by consolidating shipments or encouraging customers to collect parcels from less-expensive commercial points, but the associated tweaks to their system may raise internal costs.

According to the TD Cowen/AFS Index, in the express parcel segment the combined effect of the general annual rate increase, fuel surcharge adjustments, a shift to more premium services and higher average billed weight more than offset carrier discounting, resulting in a significant net increase in cost per package in in the first quarter, jumping from 0.9% above the January 2018 baseline in Q4 23, to 3.9%.

The upward push on pricing from parcel carriers is playing out in an environment where observers have speculated about the demise of the free shipping concept. This has been predicted many times over the past few years, but some analysts argue that this time it may happen.

In November, retail research firm First Insight suggested one-third of consumers were willing to spend at least $10 for shipping.

“The days of high consumer expectation for free and fast shipping may be in the rear-view mirror, and retailers may no longer have to automatically offer free shipping simply to remain competitive,” commented First Insight CEO Greg Petro.

Consumers appear to have swallowed the emergence of charges for product returns.

But Rick Watson, founder and CEO of e-commerce consulting firm RMW, has misgivings. From an affordability point of view for merchants, free shipping should not be around any more, but sellers are afraid of how much business they could lose if they ceased to offer it, he said.

He pointed to a recent survey by PYMNTS and Adobe, which found that 66% of consumers considered free shipping key to customer loyalty.

“Retailers must figure out a way to subsidise free shipping if they want to grow,” he commented, adding that the best strategy toward that end may be loyalty programmes.

“Consumers are still willing to pay for loyalty, at least when there is a wide assortment and fast delivery involved.”

This suggests free shipping will likely survive a few more predictions of its imminent demise, but the pressure on shippers from rising fulfilment costs may force a growing number of them out of the game.

Diversions from Red Sea proving a real ‘silver lining’ for carriers

The current equilibrium between supply and demand in container shipping depends on the duration of the Red Sea attacks, and the effect on available capacity, as ships take longer routes via the Cape of Good Hope.

Attacks on commercial shipping by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have kept elderly tonnage, that would otherwise have been sold for scrap, gainfully employed at a premium for shipowners and, moreover, soaked up the huge number of newbuild vessels being delivered each month.

What is not known, of course, is how much longer this threat to shipping in the Red Sea will continue to prevent liners from safely using the shorter Suez Canal route.

The latest container market analysis from international shipping association Bimco estimates ship demand growth currently running at 9.5%, due to vessels being rerouted, against a predicted 9.1% growth in the supply of new tonnage this year.

The temporary demand for ships is unrelated to cargo volume growth, which Bimco expects to run at a modest 3% to 4% this year – thus without the Red Sea crisis, liner shipping would be in serious trouble.

“The tightening of the supply/demand balance has immediately led to an increase in freight rates, time-charter rates and time-charter fixture periods,” noted Bimco.

According to Bimco’s data, charter rates have increased 41% since December, while average time-charter durations have been extended by three months, with average freight rates remaining 52% higher than at the end of 2023.

However, the working assumption of Bimco, and that of the major container lines, is that by the second half of this year, liner trades will again be transiting the Suez Canal and the industry will again face a deteriorating supply/ demand imbalance.

Ocean carriers have factored this uncertainty into their full-year guidances for earnings, which have been wide-ranging, from significant profits to significant losses.

OOCL parent OOIL said last week the outlook for the container shipping market remained uncertain and added: “The current supply chain tension is caused by the rerouting of vessels, which is quite different compared to the spike in demand, inadequate supply and the interruption of the supply chain during the pandemic period between 2020 and 2022.”

It continued: “What is obvious is that the container shipping market is highly susceptible to any form of disruption, and the complete effect will not be seen until the original balance is restored or a new equilibrium is found.”

Meanwhile, notwithstanding the Red Sea crisis, Bimco’s report also focuses on the risks to global trade, in particular the US market, where it sees the expiration of the east coast labour agreement in September and the upcoming US presidential elections as potential threats.

“If re-elected, Donald Trump has vowed to increase tariffs on Chinese imports, which will impact trade between China and the US. Unless replaced by trade from other Asian countries, this would hurt overall demand in transpacific trade,” said Bimco.

And on a failure to agree a new US east labour contract, Bimco said that scenario was “unlikely, but should it happen it could wreak havoc on supply chains”.

Mass-casualty incident’ as Maersk box ship destroys Baltimore bridge

A Maersk-operated 2M Alliance container vessel with two pilots onboard crashed into a support pylon of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, in the early hours of this morning, demolishing the 1.6 mile bridge and plunging at least 20 people into the Patapsco River.

Authorities described the collision as a “mass-casualty incident” and said emergency services were still searching the river for seven people.

You can see the bridge collapsing here on YouTube.

The 2015-built 9,962 teu Dali was less than 30 minutes into its backhaul voyage to Asia, after completing two days of cargo operations at the Seagirt Marine Terminal, when the incident happened.

According to eeSea data, the vessel is deployed on Maersk’s Asia-US east coast TP12 loop and MSC’s Empire service, with the 2M partners also having a slot charter agreement with Zim which the Israeli carrier has dubbed its ZBA service.

Marine cargo insurers, WK Webster, warned Maersk’s customers that delays or loss would be inevitable.

“There is likely to be significant cargo loss and damage as a result of this very serious incident, including to a number of containers which are reported to be hanging from the bridge. It also seems almost certain that the vessel will not be proceeding with the voyage in the near future resulting in serious delays to all cargo on board.”

Vespucci Maritime’s Lars Jensen said the collapse of the bridge would effectively cut off the container terminals and its other cargo facilities.

 

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Baltimore handles around 21,000 teu a week, which will now have to be routed via other ports in the region.

“Additionally, this means that the cargo already gated into the Baltimore terminals would either have to wait an unknown period for the sealane to reopen, or be gated out and shifted to a different port,” said Mr Jensen.

This is the second incident within 10 days of a large container vessel seemingly losing control of its steering.

On 16 March, the 2015-built 14,000 teu YM Witness, with pilots onboard and tugs in attendance, crashed into the quay while attempting to berth at Turkey’s Evyapport, destroying three ship-to-shore gantry cranes.

Maersk said this morning: “We are horrified by what has happened in Baltimore, and our thoughts are with all of those affected.

“We can confirm that the container vessel Dali, operated by charter vessel company Synergy Group, is time-chartered by Maersk and is carrying Maersk customers’ cargo. No Maersk crew and personnel were onboard.

“We are closely following the investigations conducted by authorities and Synergy, and we will do our utmost to keep our customers informed.”

The Dali‘s headhaul itinerary was via the Panama Canal, but the service is currently routed via the Cape of Good Hope on the backhaul voyage. Prior to Baltimore, the Dali called at New York and Norfolk, Virginia, with Colombo, Sri Lanka, the next scheduled call.

Maersk agreed a five-year extension to the vessel’s time charter in April 2020 with Singapore-based shipowners Grace Ocean Investment with the daily hire rate not disclosed. However according to Vesselsvalue data Maersk was paying a rate of $40,600 per day for the five-year prior period.

According to the ship’s manager, Synergy Marine Corp, there are no reports of any injuries to the Dali’s crew or the pilots as a result of the incident.

In July 2016 the ship was involved in a collision in the port of Antwerp during unmooring manoeuvres when leaving the berth in good weather, causing significant damage to the ship and the quay with the blame attributed to errors by the Master and pilot onboard.

SeaCube boss calls for more reefers to be manufactured outside China

While a US investigation into cyber security concerns over container cranes appears to be increasing diplomatic tensions between the US and China, there has been a fresh call for more diversity in reefer container sourcing.

“We have looked at the possibility of moving some of the reefer manufacturing out of China,” SeaCube Container Leasing chief executive Bob Sappio told delegates at this year’s S&P TPM conference in Long Beach, addressing concerns on the industry’s near-total reliance on Chinese manufacturers.

While the machinery which controls the refrigeration is produced in Ireland, the US and Japan, the boxes are all built in China, led by China International Marine Containers (CIMC), Dong Fang, Maersk Container Industry (MCI) and Guangdong FUWA.

“We would like to build a coalition of leasing companies, shipping lines and other stakeholders to ask if we should build some reefers in the western hemisphere.

“Currently all the reefers are built in China and then have to be moved to Latin America, often carrying dry cargo, where there is the demand for the equipment – so it would seem to make sense to build the units closer to where the demand is,” he added.

This has been attempted before, of course, with MCI’s ill-fated project to build reefers in a factory in San Antonio, Chile, which closed in June 2018, some three years after opening production lines, citing overcapacity in the reefer sector and the high costs of sourcing raw materials and developing a Chile-based supply chain.

MCI subsequently consolidated all its container manufacturing at its facility in the Chinese port city of Qingdao – its first dedicated reefer manufacturing plant, which began operating in 1998.

Mr Sappio said talks with potential manufacturers in the US – where there are a number of producers of refrigerated truck trailers – revealed similar concerns about profitability, especially given the fact that Chinese box production is largely undertaken by state-subsidised firms.

“We have made enquiries with the reefer trailer manufacturers here in the US, but they are all worried about making hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of investment in new production lines and then seeing the Chinese producers reduce their prices to a level where all the business remains with them.

“However, we have all read the story about the investigation into Chinese-made container cranes, and I think the dominance of reefer manufacturing also needs to be looked at very seriously,” he added.

He suggested that a recent ownership change at SeaCube – UK infrastructure investment fund Wren House recently acquired a 50% stake from owner Ontario Teachers Pension Plan – may mean the leading reefer leasing company could, in part, fund new manufacturing capacity.

Mr Sappio’s words echo those of Federal Maritime Commissioner Karl Bentzel, who authored a 2022 report on container manufacturing in China, which noted: “When demand for ocean containers increased [during the pandemic], Chinese-based intermodal equipment manufacturers were notably slow in ramping up production, raising the question of whether this was part of a deliberate strategy to manipulate prices.

“The Department of Commerce has determined that Chinese container and chassis manufacturers are state-owned and controlled and are the recipients of large government subsidies,” it added.

Two months after the release of the FMC’s report the US Department of Justice blocked China-Merchants-owned box builder CIMC’s $1bn takeover bid for MCI on competition grounds.

Cosco and OOCL u-turn on pledge not to call at ports in Israel

Cosco Shipping Lines and its subsidiary, OOCL, have apparently backtracked on halting calls to Israeli ports.

In December, Cosco announced that Israel-bound services would be suspended due to “operational difficulties”.

Both lines are still calling at Haifa and Ashdod ports, with long-haul shipments facilitated through transhipment at Piraeus in Greece and Velncia in Spain.

In Haifa, Cosco and OOCL use the SIPG Bayport Terminal, operated by the China state-owned Shanghai International Port Group.

Israel’s transport ministry was said to have questioned why Cosco halted calls, although it appeared that it was due to the difficulties of accessing the country through the Red Sea, due to the risk of Houthi attacks.

Israeli publication Globes, citing sources, said the decision had created a “diplomatic fuss”, with China’s ambassador to Israel, Cai Run, being summoned to a meeting by the foreign affairs ministry in January. Globes reported that Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was striving to keep shipping lanes to Israel open and wanted to resolve the situation with the Chinese state-owned shipping group.

Iran is supporting the Houthi rebels, but China is the largest importer of Iranian crude oil, which implies Chinese ships are unlikely to be harmed, even if they call at Israeli ports. The precarious situation in the region has seen several ships broadcasting AIS messages saying they are not going to Israel or that they have an all-Chinese crew.

From Wednesday, Cosco and OOCL will be starting their Mediterranean feeder service by adding a ship to Zim Line’s Tyrrhenian Container Service. Cosco has been taking slots on the Zim service since November.

The loop connects Ashdod, Haifa, Fos, Genoa and Salerno and has a three-week rotation with three 1,100-1,400 teu ships. Cosco will deploy the 1,223 teu Frederik to join Zim’s 1,134 teu Asiatic King and 1,421 teu Navi Baltic.

Meanwhile, Cosco has been using the 13,092 teu Cosco Development for extra feedering between Piraeus and Belgium’s Zeebrugge port as tonnage continues to be held up by diversions round the Cape of Good Hope. The ship was taken out of the Chinese operator’s transatlantic service and substituted with the 8,063 teu OOCL Seoul.

Bangkok, Colombo and Dubai see major shift in cargo from sea to air

Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport has seen spikes in modal shift from sea to air this year, as the Red Sea crisis continues to put global supply chains under strain.

A source at the Thai international gateway said airfreight exports had shot up 58% in January, with air imports surging 29% year on year, and that the shift had continued into February.

They told The Loadstar: “February airfreight volumes were up 30% year on year,” noting that the airport was not “traditionally a sea-air hub”.

That was in reference to the latest WorldACD update, which lists Bangkok as one of three gateways to have witnessed a “strong sea-air surge” in the closing weeks of February, with Colombo and Dubai also listed as beneficiaries of the trend.

Dubai saw an explosion in airfreight, up 146% year on year during weeks 7 and 8; Colombo’s climbing 80%.

WorldACD said the “exceptionally high demand” was being driven by “cargo owners whose supply chains have been disrupted by attacks on container shipping in the Red Sea” seeking “fast but affordable alternatives to deliver to Europe from Asia Pacific”.

The update noted that volume growth at Bangkok dipped to 15% during week 8, suggesting a “moderating of demand on that lane”.

However, it may also have been tied to Bangkok Flight Services (BFS) having announced a 24-hour embargo on imports between the 13 and 14 February, as it struggled to contend with what it described as a “surprise surge” in demand. This mirrored a similar decision at Dubai’s dnata handling group a day before, an embargo which, unlike BFS’s, lasted 48 hours.

BFS said: “Due to unprecedented volumes, due to the Red Sea crisis resulting in a modal shift from sea to air, and a higher-than-expected surge prior to Chinese New Year, we have built up a backlog of cargo for processing and have had to suspend processing of imports.”

Such was the impact of the collective spikes at Bangkok, Colombo and Dubai, that worldwide airfreight volumes grew a record 9% week on week in the seven days to 25 February.

During the wider two-week period covered by WorldACD though, global tonnages were down 11% against the preceding two weeks, and it cited big drops in exports out of Asia-Pacific (down 24%) and Central and South-America (down 25%).

Only European exports (up 3% ) and the Middle East and South Asia (up 11%) saw any real growth over the two weeks, with Africa down 8% and North America down 1%.

Cost of ‘land bridge’ alternative to Panama Canal too high for carriers

Liner operators say they are unlikely to emulate Maersk in using land transport to circumvent the Panama Canal  restrictions, as moving containers by land in the Americas could drive costs up more than 30%.

In January, the Panama Canal Authority increased the number of daily transit slots to 24, despite first announcing a reduction to 18 for February. However, this is still fewer than the usual 36 daily transits through the waterway.

In response, Maersk announced its OC1 service from Oceania to North and South America would instead call at Balboa port in Panama on the Pacific side, and discharge boxes there.

In the opposite direction, vessels would discharge shipments for Australia and New Zealand at Panama’s port of Manzanillo, on the Atlantic side. These containers are sent by rail across the canal to be transhipped.

Last month’s Clarksons’ Container Intelligence Monthly stated that ONE had followed Maersk by announcing it would be using a ‘land bridge’ involving rail across Panama for some services, omitting canal transits.

However, a ONE spokesperson clarified to The Loadstar: “This is just a temporary land bridge operation for destinations of small volumes in the Caribbean Sea and South American east coast. We have conducted this operation in the past, even before the Panama congestion this time.

“This is just a similar case to past initiatives and, hence, we didn’t ‘follow in Maersk’s footsteps’.”

The spokesperson added: “Our service which hasn’t been able to pass the Panama Canal calls at Rodman port. Since there isn’t any rail service to Rodman, we’re temporarily adopting inland truck service if needed.”

A representative of ONE’s THE Alliance partner, Yang Ming, told The Loadstar land bridge options were not cost-effective.

“Land bridge movements account for just 10% of our US east coast services; because empty containers can only be transported back to Asia by seaborne transport, the cost of a landbridge is too high.

“Today, the freight rate from Asia to the US east coast is around $5,900 per 40ft. A normal Panama transit will take 37 days, but with the diversion round the Cape of Good Hope, you add five to six days. Using a land option will take around 30 days, but add nearly $2,000 to the cost,” he explained.

Linerlytica analyst Tan Hua Joo told The Loadstar he was not aware of any other liner operator using a land option. He explained: “The land bridge option is clearly more expensive, and unfeasible in the long run. I do not see any other carrier taking this option as there are better alternatives available, including the Cape route being used by some carriers.

“THE Alliance has also shifted some of their diverted services back to the Panama Canal with the increased number of slots available,” he added.

US Increases Port Cybersecurity Citing Threat of Chinese Cargo Cranes

President Joe Biden today launched a sweeping Executive Order designed to give the Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Coast Guard broader authority in strengthening maritime cybersecurity. Under the guise of strengthening the nation’s supply chains and security, the administration is highlighting a plan to invest over $20 billion over the next five years in port infrastructure including an effort to reestablish domestic crane manufacturing to end Chinese dominance in large cargo cranes.

“Every day malicious cyber actors attempt to gain unauthorized access to the Marine Transportation System’s control systems and networks,” The White House wrote in announcing the Executive Order.  Without citing any specific examples and saying the move was not in response to a specific threat, the order is designed to bolster the security of the nation’s ports along with actions to strengthen maritime cybersecurity, fortify supply chains, and strengthen the U.S. industrial base they said.

While there have been multiple instances of port authorities, terminal operators, and shipping companies all experiencing hacking and cyberattacks, the issue of Chinese-manufactured cargo cranes surfaced nearly a year ago after The Wall Street Journal ran a story citing unnamed sources alleging a threat from the Chinese either spying on U.S. ports or having the potential to control the cranes remotely. The American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) strongly refuted the accusations calling them “sensationalized claims” and saying that there is no evidence of the cranes being used to harm or track port operations.

In the Executive Order signed today by President Biden, the Department of Homeland Security is directed to address maritime cyber threats, including setting cybersecurity standards. The U.S. Coast Guard is given authority to respond to malicious cyber activity, including the authority to “control the movements of vessels that present a known or suspected cyber threat.”

It also institutes mandatory reporting of cyber incidents or active cyber threats. This includes threats to vessels, harbors, ports, or waterfront facilities. The U.S. also intends to name a Maritime Security Director.

The USCG is directed to issue a Maritime Security Directive “on cyber risk management actions for ship-to-shore cranes manufactured by the People’s Republic of China located at U.S. commercial strategic seaports.” The owners and operators of the cranes “must acknowledge the directive” and take action on the cranes and the associated information and operational technologies.

“Several vulnerabilities have been identified,” according to The White House in a MARAD advisory that is being released today. In a background briefing, Rear Admiral John Vann of the USCG said they were already assessing 200 cranes for cybersecurity vulnerabilities. He pointed out that by design the cranes and software have remote programming capabilities and tracking devices built into their systems which he contended are “vulnerable to exploitation.”

Without specifically citing the cranes, the FBI and other security agencies have warned of a potential threat from China or other malicious actors to U.S. infrastructure.

The White House today highlighted an agreement with PACECO Corp., a U.S.-based subsidiary of Japan’s Mitsui E&S Co., which they report is planning to relaunch a U.S. manufacturing capability for cranes. They emphasized that the company was a pioneer in 1958 with the first dedicated ship-to-shore container crane but ended U.S.-based crane manufacturing in the late 1980s. PACECO is reported to be looking for partners and a site but plans on manufacturing cranes in the U.S. for the first time in 30 years.

Currently, 70 to 80 percent of the large, container cranes used in ports worldwide are manufactured by ZPMC, a company headquartered in China. Emerging as a lower-cost alternative, and in many cases, the only viable supplier, the company’s large ship-to-shore cranes are deployed in over 100 countries.

Last year, lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives proposed the Port Crane Security & Inspection Act addressing any crane manufactured by a “foreign adversary,” and also a “crane for which any information technology and operational technology components in such crane is connected into cyberinfrastructure at a port located in the United States.”

AAPA highlighted that the Chinese company built its lead by being the only major manufacturer of large cranes. They called on the U.S. Congress to focus on efforts to reshore the manufacturing of cranes to the U.S. as a means of supporting American industry and ports.

Many of the elements of these initiatives appear to have influenced the content of the Executive Order signed today. The USCG reports it opened a public comment period running until late April as it moves forward to enact the new rules.

Chinese Cargo Ship Hits Bridge Collapsing Roadway and Killing Five People

Chinese authorities are reporting that a small cargo ship traveling on the Hingqili near the industrial southern city of Guangzhou hit a bridge crossing the waterway causing a section of the roadway to collapse. At least five vehicles plunged off the bridge with the latest reports saying five people have been killed, two are being treated in the hospital, and a search of the river was continuing.

The unidentified vessel was reported to be traveling in the Pearl River delta between Foshan and Guangzhou when the side of the vessel struck one support pillar of the bridge. According to the maritime authorities, the vessel twisted with the bow then coming in contact with a second support pillar. The roadway section between the two supports collapsed.

They believe that three small trucks, a minibus, and a motorcycle all plunged off the bridge. The small bus, one of the vehicles, and the motorcycle plunged into the open hopper barge. The other two vehicles fell into the river.

 

 

Authorities are saying the accident happened at 5:30 a.m. local time which may have helped to limit the number of causalities. The small bus was reported to only have a driver aboard and the wreckage can be seen in pictures of the cargo ship as it was being taken away.

The authorities in a news conference after the accident blamed the accident on “improper operation” of the cargo vessel. They said the owner of the ship had been detained. One crewmember aboard the vessel was reported to have suffered minor injuries.

 

 

Chinese TV reported that six scuba divers were seen scouring the river. Multiple salvage ships were also in the area.

The two-lane Lixinsha Bridge connected a rural island area to the industrial city. Officials said at least 8,000 people, mostly farmers would be isolated on the island without the roadway. They were starting a temporary ferry service while an investigation was also underway into the cause of the accident.

U.S. Container Import Volumes Soar Prompting Retailers to Increase Forecast

Despite all the challenges being reported for container shipping and the negative outlook presented by the carriers, U.S. import container volumes are soaring and expected to continue their upward momentum through at least the first half of 2024. This comes as economists continue to point to the resiliency of the economy and the apparent soft landing to the feared 2023 recession.

U.S. container import volume had its largest month-over-month gain in January 2024 in the last seven years according to data released by Descartes Systems Group, a software provider for logistics-intensive businesses. Their February Global Shipping report highlights a 7.9 percent increase in overall container import volume in the U.S. in January 2024 versus December. They report a nearly 15 percent rise in imports from China, highlighting that most of the volume went to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

The strong growth in January 2024 also brought container volumes back up to year-ago levels and even slightly ahead of January 2019 before the pandemic. Descartes calculates volumes were up nearly 10 percent year-over-year to a total of 2.27 million TEU in January 2024. This is also 9.6 percent ahead of January 2019.

“January was another solid month driven by surprisingly strong imports from China,” said Chris Jones, EVP Industry and Services, Descartes. He however warns, “The combined effect of the Panama drought and the conflict in the Middle East is beginning to impact transit times, particularly at the top East and Gulf coast ports.”

Descartes cautions that the global supply chain performance could be impacted throughout 2024. They highlight the ongoing limits of transits at the Panama Canal, the disruptions to routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, and the upcoming labor negotiations at U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. The International Longshoremen Association reported it has given its locals a May 2024 deadline as it works to complete a master contract before the September 30, 2024, expiration.

The National Retail Federation, the trade group for U.S. retailers, is also predicting a strong start to 2024 with a forecast of a better than five percent increase in import container volumes for the first half of 2024 versus 2023. Their Global Port Tracker is forecasting a strong gain of 20 percent for February in part due to the timing of the Lunar New Year in 2023 and the beginning of a slowdown in import volumes a year ago.

“U.S. retailers are working to mitigate the impact of delays and increased costs,” says Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, discussing the ramifications of the Suez Canal and Red Sea disruptions. He highlights that only about 12 percent of U.S.-bound cargo comes through the Suez Canal,” but warns like others, “the longer the disruptions occur, the bigger impact this could have.”

After a strong February, the NRF predicts volumes will be up at a more moderate pace in the first half of the year. They forecast between 2.65 percent and 5.5 percent gains with only May expected to be flat with the year-ago. Monthly retail import volumes are projected at between 1.7 and 1.9 million TEU per month.

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