Container import volumes at the main U.S. ports containers ports continued to grow into the fall leading to a later than expected peak this year and prompting forecasts for continuing year-over-year growth in 2024. With the U.S. economy appearing to be on a sustainable growth path, the National Retail Federation is projecting record total sales volumes for the 2023 holiday season and strong growth in import volumes in the first quarter of 2024 compared to weak volumes early in 2023.

Import volumes surprised the retail trade group which had last month lowered its forecast for container volume in its monthly Global Port Tracker report. The group reported that it believed most imported holiday season merchandise had already arrived by September and that inbound cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports was expected to slow during the remainder of 2023.

“We originally thought peak season would come in August but imports kept growing in September and again in October,” said Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the NRF. “Whether it was merchandise for retailers or cargo for other businesses, that’s a good sign for the economy and for the holiday shopping season.”

The report highlights that October’s import volume was a higher than expected 2.05 million TEUs at the major U.S. ports topping September’s 2.03 million TEU and marking the fifth consecutive month of month-over-month gains. October was also the first month to show year-over-year gains in volume since June 2022.

As a result, the National Retail Federation is raising its outlook for fourth-quarter import volumes by over five percent compared to a reduced forecast issued last month. While they still project that the year’s import volumes will be down 12.4 percent versus 2022, they believe the strength of the economy will lead to continued gains going forward.

The retail group also raised its forecast for the first quarter of 2024 by 2.4 percent versus last month now calling for import volume of 5.45 million TEU between January and March 2024. That represents monthly gains versus 2023 of between nearly seven percent and more than 14 percent in February which was slowed in 2023 by the Lunar New Year and an extended holiday period in Asia.

The retailers highlight that in seven of the past 10 years, import volumes have peaked in October. They believe shippers accelerated shipments in 2021 and 2022 due to the fears of port congestion and last year’s threats of labor problems after the union contract expired on the West Coast.

Figures from Descartes Systems Group confirmed the anticipated slowing of volumes in November. They calculated a nine percent decline in volumes from October to November 2023 at U.S. ports, noting that while it was consistent with historical performance, it reflects a continuing decline in volumes from China.

“November has traditionally been a weaker month than October and while the decline is steep, it is consistent with other years’ performance,” commented Chris Jones, EVP Industry at Descartes.

They calculate that November’s volumes came in at just under 2.1 million TEU. It however was 7.4 percent higher than November 2022 and more than 10 percent higher than pre-pandemic November 2019.

Port officials in South Africa are reporting it is likely to take until 2024 and possibly till February to clear the current congestion that has built up at the container port in Durban. Consistently at the bottom of port rankings for efficiency, Durban is facing a crisis with more than 60 vessels reportedly waiting offshore and importers now saying they will not have expected merchandise in time for Christmas.

“The problem of port congestion is a complex one and it is something that was due to happen at some point, as a result of many years of underinvestment in equipment and its maintenance,” Transnet operator of the large container terminal at Durban wrote in a statement attributed to Board Chairperson, Andile Sangqu. “We need to caution that this is going to take some time as the lead times for some of the equipment is anything from 12 to 18 months,” said Sangqu in a media briefing.

Carriers have been warning customers for weeks that the situation in Durban had reached crisis level with the operator in part blaming bad weather in addition to staffing levels and equipment failures. Maersk at the beginning of November imposed a congestion fee between $200 and $400 per container for boxes shipped to South Africa from destinations beyond East and West Africa. MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company followed suit with a similar congestion fee and CMA CGM announced at the end of last week it will also be implementing a Port Congestion Surcharge of $200 per TEU bound for Port Elizabeth, Durban, and Cape Town beginning in December. Maersk and other carriers have also dropped port calls and announced changes to their rotation.

Transnet says with 63 vessels currently anchored off Port Durban and 20 booked for the two berths at the Durban Container Terminals it will take weeks to clear the backlog. They are working to increase the volume at the larger Pier 2 from a pace averaging 2,500 TEU a day over the past four weeks to a target of as many as 4,000 TEU daily. The historical average has been 3,300 TEU a day.  Even with the increased pace at Pier 2, they warn into could be 15 weeks, which would be the beginning of February before they can catch up.

The situation is looking only slightly better at Pier 1. They are going to try to raise the volume from the current 1,200 TEU a day to 1,500 TEU over the next few weeks. They expect it could take seven weeks to clear the backlog at Pier 1.

Durban has consistently ranked low for port operations. The World Bank’s 2022 report places Durban at 365 on a list of 370 ports. Transnet, however, cites weather as well as issues of equipment availability for the current problems. Ships are reporting the wait is three to four times the average time to offload in Durban.

The company says it is prioritizing the optimization of port operations and working to improve planning and forecasting leading to better anticipation of cargo volumes. Among the steps they are taking to address the slow turnaround times is increasing staff including a fourth shift.

While saying it is an urgent intervention to address the backlogs, Transnet reports it will take time to obtain new equipment. They are working to repair and refurbish critical port equipment but said it will last till August 2024. They are buying 16 gantry cranes for delivery by the second half of 2025 and four ship-to-shore cranes for delivery in FY 2025-2026.

Similar delays are reported to also be building at Richards Bay, which is the large breakbulk port for the mining industry. Transnet said it will be conducting an emergency meeting with port officials and the industry on Tuesday to work on a plan to address the problems at Richards Bay.

While there has been a lot of attention to the dangers of transporting battery-powered vehicles and lithium-ion batteries and devices as cargo, the National Transportation Safety Board is now warning crews about the dangers of unsupervised charging of lithium-ion batteries. The NTSB working with the U.S. Coast Guard and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) determined that a fire that destroyed the bridge of a tanker docked in Louisiana last year was caused by a lithium-ion battery-powered radio that exploded while charging on an unattended bridge.

The investigation narrowed the case of the fire aboard the oil tanker S Trust (106,000 dwt) to the batteries and specifically the batteries for a handheld radio that had been left in a charger. Docked at the Genesis Port Allen Terminal, the vessel was offloading and the bridge was unattended when the fire began. By the time the captain became aware of the fire, it had already spread and ultimately destroyed the navigation, communication, and alarm systems. They estimate the damage at $3 million.

The S Trust, registered in Liberia and with a crew of 23, docked at the terminal on November 11, 2022, and was offloading high-sulfur fuel oil. At about 1530 on November 13, the master of the vessel working in his office one deck below the bridge noticed that the closed-circuit camera feed from the bridge was not showing and went to investigate. It was only then that they discovered a fire on the bridge. The report notes that as a control station, SOLAS does not require the bridge to have fire or smoke detectors.

The master recounted to the investigators that he believed the fire was coming from the communications table but the smoke was too thick for him to enter the bridge. He ordered the fuel operations suspended and electric power turned off to the bridge. Fire crews fought the fire from both bridge wings and at 1550 the fire was declared out. No one was injured and the damage was contained to the bridge.

Sequence of images captured from the bridge camera shows the explosion and a burning object landing on the deck (NTSB)

The investigators reviewed video footage from the bridge and determined at 1527 there was an orange flash followed by smoke coming from the communications table. The smoke quickly increased and two minutes later there was a second orange flash and an object flew from the area landing on the deck and continuing to burn. By 1536, nine minutes after the first flash, ash and the heat from the fire prevented further images from the camera on the bridge.

The subsequent investigation found the ship had 20 UHF handheld radios, including 14 batteries with lithium-ion cells and another 13 with nickel-metal hydride cells. There were also 16 chargers on the ship. Shifting the debris, investigators found the remains of a lithium-ion battery in a charger but its two cells were not found. The analysis rules out the other electronic devices or batteries as the cause of the fire.

NTSB in its report concludes a thermal runaway occurred in the cells which is an incident where the cells overheat and combust. The cells might have been damaged during use, defective, or not certified. Overcharging can also be a cause of the event which is a chemical reaction fire that they warn can reach 1,100 degrees F.

The recommendations include avoiding unsupervised charging, keeping the batteries and chargers away from heat sources, and disposing of damaged batteries. The report states that should a lithium-ion battery fire occur, crews can attempt to extinguish the fire with water, foam, CO2, or other dry chemical or powdered agents, or allow the pack to burn in a controlled manner. They however warn that nearby cells may also experience thermal runaway.

The Georgia Ports Authority highlights the strong growth in Ro-Ro traffic at the port of Brunswick, Gerogia as it works to realize the opportunities due to the strong growth in the automotive sector. Through their investments in infrastructure, they look to make Brunswick the top U.S. auto and Ro-Ro port.

Reviewing the state of the ports, GPA President and CEO Griff Lynch highlighted volumes that are already expanding at a strong rate in fiscal 2023 and which they expect to accelerate based on the strength of the automotive sector. In fiscal year 2023, the Colonel’s Island Terminal in Brunswick grew Ro-Ro volumes by 18 percent, to more than 705,000 units of autos and heavy machinery, moving both into and out of the port. This included 610 vessel calls, an increase of 11 percent, with 495 of those specifically at the Colonel’s Island terminal in Brunswick. They also handled approximately 18,500 units in Savannah during the year, volume that will be shifting to Brunswick as it becomes the sole Ro-Ro port and Savannah focuses on containers.

The GPA reported that three-quarters of the volume was imports which facilities, such as areas for pre-delivery inspections, set up specifically to support the import trade. The port also features a new fumigation facility onsite which is the largest facility of its size for autos and machinery. They note this is critical for exports as Australia and New Zealand are requiring fumigation for their imports.

As demand has grown in the automotive sector, and specifically with more manufacturing and OEMs moving production to Mexico, they highlight Georgia is supporting the industry with two services. CMA CGM started a new short-sea service carrying vehicles from Mexico to Brunswick in July and the Gold Star shipping line is starting a similar service this month.

This has helped volume in Brunswick, which was already growing at a strong pace, to see a sharp increase in September.  The Colonel’s Island Terminal handled 70,645 Ro-Ro units. Up 61 percent year-over-year.

“The automotive sector has been especially strong and consumer demand is driving this trend,” notes Lynch. “To accommodate anticipated market demand, GPA has initiated an aggressive infrastructure plan, strengthening Colonel’s Island for auto and machinery processing.”

The terminal currently is composed of 1,700 acres with four on-site auto processors while they highlight there are 264 acres of additional space available. Construction was recently completed on 350,000 square feet of near-dock warehousing that serves auto and machinery processing on the north side of Colonel’s Island Terminal. Three additional buildings representing 290,000 square feet and 122 acres of Roll-on/Roll-off cargo storage space are under construction on the south side of the island.

GPA has also won Federal approval for a fourth Ro-Ro berth at Colonel’s Island, to enable more vessel calls. Currently, in the engineering phase, this project will more efficiently accommodate vessels that can carry up to 7,000 vehicles. Other planned improvements include widening the channel and expanding the turning basin at Colonel’s Island to more efficiently handle large vessels as well as increasing rail capacity.

“Our investments in infrastructure capacity are well-timed to support the growing business in our Brunswick gateway,” concludes Lynch. The GPA is confident that with these steps Brunswick is on track to be the top U.S. Ro-Ro port.

Almost a year after the EU and Namibia signed an MoU on developing supply chains for rare earth metals and green hydrogen, the two partners have announced the next steps with concrete actions to advance their energy transition partnership.

On the sidelines of the EU- Namibia Business Forum held this week in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen endorsed a 2023-2025 roadmap, which will act as a guide in supporting Namibia’s fledgling renewable energy industry.

During the period, the EU will make an investment of over one billion euros and support an upcoming study for the development of the Port of Walvis Bay into an industrial and logistics hub. In an interview back in August, Namibian Ports Authority (Namport) CEO Andrew Kanime projected that the port expansion works in the country needed around $2.1 billion to reach the desired capacity for energy exports. Walvis Bay would take up much of the expansion efforts.

In addition, the EU will also work with the Port of Antwerp and Bruges International to develop a master plan, which covers multimodal infrastructure, spatial planning and market organization for the Port of Walvis Bay. A key feature of this deal is the development of the Walvis Bay-Maputo Corridor, a coast-to-coast corridor linking the Atlantic to the Western Indian Ocean. The route is critical in serving the Southern-Central Africa copper belt. With copper increasingly in high demand from renewable energy industries, efficiency in shipment of the metal is now a matter of great interest.

The Dutch government has also commissioned a feasibility study for the expansion of the Lüderitz port, located 250 nautical miles south of the Port of Walvis Bay.

“The EU needs to secure a sustainable supply of raw materials, especially those critical in delivering the green and clean energy objectives. As part of the Action Plan on Critical Raw Materials, the Commission is already building partnerships with resource-rich third countries,” said EC in a statement.

In June, Namibia banned export of unprocessed lithium and rare earth metals. Industry stakeholders have pointed out that such a directive would be beneficial if Namibia had the necessary industrial and logistical capacity.

In a meeting for mining executives this week in Namibia, Joe Walsh, the managing director of lithium processing company Lepidico said his firm will be processing battery-grade lithium at its plant to be built in Abu Dhabi, ostensibly because of the city’s proximity to industrial and logistics hub. Lepidico has an ongoing lithium mining project in the Karibib region of Namibia.

“Abu Dhabi offers immediate logistical efficiencies, an established industrial park with available shared infrastructure. This is a very good example of efficient and effective infrastructure that would be a huge benefit if it was installed, say, at Walvis Bay in Namibia,” Walsh elaborated.

Indeed, the EU-Namibia partnership is essential in developing the large-scale infrastructure projects needed to support local metals processing and export. In return, Namibia is poised to supply the EU bloc with green hydrogen and minerals needed for clean energy technologies.